Sunday, November 24, 2024
Subscribe American Journal of Medicine Free Newsletter
CardiologyA Simple Community-Based Risk-Prediction Score for Sudden Cardiac Death

A Simple Community-Based Risk-Prediction Score for Sudden Cardiac Death

man holding chest and woman offering him water

Although sudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death in the United States, most victims of sudden cardiac death are not identified as at risk prior to death. We sought to derive and validate a population-based risk score that predicts sudden cardiac death.

Methods

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study recorded clinical measures from men and women aged 45-64 years at baseline; 11,335 white and 3780 black participants were included in this analysis. Participants were followed over 10 years and sudden cardiac death was physician adjudicated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive race-specific equations to estimate the 10-year sudden cardiac death risk. Covariates for the risk score were selected from available demographic and clinical variables. Utility was assessed by calculating discrimination (Harrell’s C-index) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared test). The white-specific equation was validated among 5626 Framingham Heart Study participants.

Results

During 10 years’ follow-up among ARIC participants (mean age 54.4 years, 52.4% women), 145 participants experienced sudden cardiac death; the majority occurred in the highest quintile of predicted risk. Model covariates included age, sex, total cholesterol, lipid-lowering and hypertension medication use, blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index. The score yielded very good internal discrimination (white-specific C-index 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.85; black-specific C-index 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.82) and very good external discrimination among Framingham participants (C-index 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.86). Calibration plots indicated excellent calibration in ARIC (white-specific chi-squared 5.3, P = .82; black-specific chi-squared 4.1, P = .77), and a simple recalibration led to excellent fit within Framingham (chi-squared 2.1, P = 0.99).

Conclusions

The proposed risk scores may be used to identify those at risk for sudden cardiac death within 10 years and particularly classify those at highest risk who may merit further screening.

To read this article in its entirety please visit our website.

-Brittany M. Bogle, PhD, MPH, Hongyan Ning, MD, MS, Jeffrey J. Goldberger, MD, Sanjay Mehrotra, PhD, Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, MD, ScM

This article originally appeared in the May issue  of The American Journal of Medicine.

Latest Posts

lupus

Sarcoidosis with Lupus Pernio in an Afro-Caribbean Man

A 54-year-old man of Afro-Caribbean ancestry presented with a 2-month history of nonproductive cough, 10-day history of constant subjective fevers, and a 1-day history...
Flue Vaccine

Flu Vaccination to Prevent Cardiovascular Mortality (video)

0
"Influenza can cause a significant burden on patients with coronary artery disease," write Barbetta et al in The American Journal of Medicine. For this...
varicella zoster

Varicella Zoster Virus-Induced Complete Heart Block

0
Complete heart block is usually caused by chronic myocardial ischemia and fibrosis but can also be induced by bacterial and viral infections. The varicella...
Racial justice in healthcare

Teaching Anti-Racism in the Clinical Environment

0
"Teaching Anti-Racism in the Clinical Environment: The Five-Minute Moment for Racial Justice in Healthcare" was originally published in the April 2023 issue of The...
Invisible hand of the market

The ‘Invisible Hand’ Doesn’t Work for Prescription Drugs

0
Pharmaceutical innovation has been responsible for many “miracles of modern medicine.” Reliance on the “invisible hand” of Adam Smith to allocate resources in the...
Joseph S. Alpert, MD

New Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors

0
"New Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors" by AJM Editor-in Chief Joseph S. Alpert, MD was originally published in the April 2023 issue of The...
Cardiovascular risk from noncardiac activities

Cardiac Risk Related to Noncardiac & Nonsurgical Activities

0
"Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk for Noncardiac and Nonsurgical Activities" was originally published in the April 2023 issue of The American Journal of Medicine. Cardiovascular risk...