Absolute coronary heart disease incidence is projected to increase by 26%, prevalence by 47%, mortality by 56%, and costs by 41%, due to the aging of the U.S. population from 2010-2040. Focusing on Health People 2010/2020 goals for risk factor control could offset some of the projected increase.
Abstract
Background
The demographic shift toward an older population in the United States will result in a higher burden of coronary heart disease, but the increase has not been quantified in detail. We sought to estimate the impact of the aging US population on coronary heart disease.
Methods
We used the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, a Markov model of the US population between 35 and 84 years of age, and US Census projections to model the age structure of the population between 2010 and 2040.
Results
Assuming no substantive changes in risks factors or treatments, incident coronary heart disease is projected to increase by approximately 26%, from 981,000 in 2010 to 1,234,000 in 2040, and prevalent coronary heart disease by 47%, from 11.7 million to 17.3 million. Mortality will be affected strongly by the aging population; annual coronary heart disease deaths are projected to increase by 56% over the next 30 years, from 392,000 to 610,000. Coronary heart disease-related health care costs are projected to rise by 41% from $126.2 billion in 2010 to $177.5 billion in 2040 in the United States. It may be possible to offset the increase in disease burden through achievement of Healthy People 2010/2020 objectives or interventions that substantially reduce obesity, blood pressure, or cholesterol levels in the population.
Conclusions
Without considerable changes in risk factors or treatments, the aging of the US population will result in a sizeable increase in coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs. Health care stakeholders need to plan for the future age-related health care demands of coronary heart disease.
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— — Michelle C. Odden, PhD, Pamela G. Coxson, PhD, Andrew Moran, MD, MPH, James M. Lightwood, PhD, Lee Goldman, MD, MPH, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD
This article originally appeared in the September 2011 issue of The American Journal of Medicine.
